Strangio | In the Dragon's Shadow

China and SEA Overview

• 11 nations (SEA mainland + maritime); 650m population; $2.8TN fifth largest economy after US, China, Japan and India; diversity in every aspect
• Mainland vs Maritime SEA distinction. Maritime SEA had much less contact with China until recent, as China after Zheng He (Muslim) abandoned its Navy projects
• Strategic importance of SEA to China. China, benefited from US security order, does not seek to replace US hegemony, but only national rejuvenation; restoring "natural place" as center of the Asia order; east side constrained as Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Philippines all US Navy allies, while northwest are Russian clientele states; hence turning SEA and strait of Malacca where 80% of Chinese oil important and majority of trade go through 
• China SEA history. Historically, China dominated SEA until Western imperial rule and the subsequent awakening of SEA nationalism. Following WWII, Mao alienated SEA by turning it into his communist revolutionary laboratory; until Deng repairing relationships through trade & creating new strategic front against Soviet Union; later after US withdraw in Bush years launching soft power "charm offensive" to fill vacuum; then recently Xi assertive diplomacy
• 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. Chinese generous support vs US nonreaction and IMF harsh diktats; most importantly China refrained from devaluing RMB; further doubt casted on US Liberal Capitalism after 2008 financial crisis
• Chinese diaspora mainly in mid 1800s when overpopulation, famine and European invasions pushed Fujian Guangdong families abroad (California, Central America, SEA); Chinese became the Jews in SEA (and Singapore the Israel); at the time few considered themselves Chinese (but Hokkien, Twochew) until downfall of Qing dynasty awakened Nanyang Chinese nationalism; later during Chinese civil war both CCP and Kuomintang courted overseas Chinese, alarming SEA states over sovereignty; discriminatory laws and riots followed; identity & loyalty of Chinese ethnic minority (especially the more recent, educated migrants) remains a sensitive issue today 
• Yunnan as China's window to SEA. Casinos and vice trade in the Golden Triangle: drugs, weapons, endangered animals, human trafficking
• China's control of Mekong headwaters. Mekong upstream dam building allows China (water shortage) to reap the benefits of hydropower while exporting environmental costs downstream eg drought, fishing decline; tremendous political leverage over SEA especially in dry season
• Ambivalence. Caught between US China rivalry, SEA attitude is ambivalent, unwilling to commit to either side and distrust to both systems (liberal capitalism and state capitalism); distrust of China due to historical subjugation, and US due to feeling of neglect & US involvement elsewhere; compares to cold war era's neutrality (open nonalliance stance) when forced to choose based on ideology
• US still largest foreign investor in SEA where it facilitates (banks, consulting, tech) whereas China builds (construction, railways, BRI)

Vietnam

• Region's biggest adversary of China; stands to lose the most from China's claim of South China Sea
• Striking a balance between US and China, both previous wartime enemies; greatest fear is US and China cut a deal, and throw Vietnam under China's sphere of dominance

Cambodia

• China's staunchest ally in SEA; greatest threats come from Thailand and Vietnam
• Khmer Rouge regime, supported by CCP, US and ASEAN, was driven out by Soviet backed Vietnam invasion in 1979; then Cambodia became an international liberalization project under UN; leading to a "democracy on face value"; root of disdain for Western intervention
• Left out of Obama's pivot to SEA and held to higher standards than other authoritarian regimes in the region; hence Hun Sen (leader) turning towards Chinese money and tourism

Thailand

• Decade of political impasse between Thaksin, 2001 elected former PM in exile (yellow), and urban royalist establishment (red), ended in 2014 with military coup and rule of Prayuth
• Historically largest US ally in SEA, increasingly turning to China since Thaksin. 1997 Asian Financial Crisis US bailed out Mexico but not Thailand; removal of "Thailand Hands" to middle east during Bush; and Obama's sanction, as per US law, following the coup; no interest in South China Sea

Burma

• History of narcotics economy and military rule; regime compared to Iran and North Korea
• Western sanctions forced Burma to heavily rely on China; until it stoked security concerns; since 2004 juntas began reform to give themselves more options
• Aung San Suu Kyi, Oxford educated long-time opposition leader, elected to majority in 2015 and marked the country as becoming a democracy; Obama lifted sanctions; Japan, EU, US rushed in to compete with China's monopoly of FDI; until her "fall from throne" after Rohingya
• Rohingya Crisis is a legacy problem of British Imperialism as Burmese borders were arbitrarily drawn across ethnic lines to facilitate administrative convenience, and the Imperialists favored Indians over ethnic majority Burmese, causing the later independent Burmese state to adopt a Chauvinist Buddhist regime
• The "crisis" or "cleansing operation" by the military & Buddhist vigilantes target "muslim Bengali militants and illegal migrants", collectively "Rohingya"
• Western sanctions again turned Burma to the support of China, who has an interest in border security, preventing it from spilling to Yunnan and maintain orders for local infrastructure projects

Malaysia

• 1MDB scandal. Najib government setup fund in 2009 to invest in green energy and tourism. 2015 WSJ reported $680m of fund flowed to Najib's personal account. Large protests & US asset seizure led Najib's 2018 defeat by PH, opposition coalition led by Mahathir
• After 1MDB, China stepped in for relief on many BRI projects and helped paying debt to foreign investors; Malaysia was in danger of becoming a Chinese clientele state
• Racial division. Ethnic minority Chinese Malaysians historically under persecution; declining both in population, and economic power since China's rise (as Malays are learning Chinese); state's fear of China bailing on its promise of noninterference with local Chinese Malays

Indonesia

• Sukarno. 1957 Sukarto, hero of independence struggle against Dutch, rose to power and pivoted left, became third largest Communist regime; US backed Indonesian military led by Suharto overthrew Sukarto in 1965; mass killing of PKI (Communist Party of Indonesia); major cold war turning point
• Suharto. During Suharto 30 year dictatorship, banned from office and military, ethnic Chinese dominated commerce; it was astute politics: Suharto regime extracted the prosperous Chinese whom without political power, while governed indigenous Indonesian whom lacking economic strength
• 1997 Asian Financial Crisis led to anti ethnic Chinese riots, and forced Suharto to resign; post 1997 warming relations with China, after China's financial assistance to IMF and restrained response to the riots
• Jokowi. Indonesia is now major commodity exporter to China, and major overseas market of Chinese consumer goods & tourism spending; with 4th largest population, only SEA country to counterbalance China, but historically Indonesia is inward looking, weak Navy; Jokowi lack IR experience; welcomed Chinese infrastructure

Phillipines

• Historically strongest regional US ally and deep US influence: cultural (basketball, fast food), economic, military
• High population growth and large overseas remittance (10% population) masks GDP growth
• 2012 filed complaint to Hague Arbitration Court under Aquino over China's maritime claim; China responded by restricting tourist outflow and Philippine fruit imports
• Duterte. Rose from war on drugs in Davao where now her daughter is carrying on the legacy; sharp turn to aligning with China; tired of US double standard calling his gangster killings murders while blind eye on its own "collateral damage" in Afghanistan etc.